Overview
- GfK’s UK consumer confidence index rose one point in September to minus 13, marking the first time since summer 2024 that the measure has logged three straight monthly gains.
- The Nuremberg Institute/GfK consumer climate for Germany fell sharply to minus 30.6 for October, driven by a 16.7‑point drop in income expectations to minus 15.0 and a jump in saving intent.
- German households’ willingness to save climbed to 21.5, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, as most respondents said high energy prices will cut their purchasing power.
- Analysts warn that rising energy and recent upticks in inflation are the common cause of weaker sentiment and that each one‑point move in these indices roughly equals a 0.1% change in year‑on‑year private consumption.
- The split outlook raises risks for economic policy because weaker consumer spending could slow growth while persistent energy‑price pressure may prompt central banks to consider tighter interest rates.