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UK Borrowing Tops Forecasts in November as Year-to-Date Deficit Widens

Stronger receipts eased the monthly deficit to a four-year low.

Overview

  • Official data show public sector net borrowing of £11.7bn in November, the smallest November shortfall since 2021 yet above economists’ expectations of about £10bn.
  • Borrowing from April to November reached £132.3bn, around £10bn higher than a year earlier and roughly £16.8bn above the Office for Budget Responsibility’s March forecast path.
  • The ONS revised earlier months higher, lifting October’s estimate to £21.2bn from £17.4bn and adding £3.9bn to the first seven months of the fiscal year.
  • The government’s reversal on Winter Fuel Payments increased spending by about £1.8bn, contributing to the upward revision and the higher year-to-date deficit.
  • Tax revenues have strengthened, with receipts up £25bn in the first eight months to £516bn, while November debt interest costs fell to £3.4bn, £200m lower than a year earlier.