Overview
- The Office for National Statistics, in data published Friday, recorded April public sector borrowing of £24.3 billion, about £3.4 billion more than the OBR's monthly forecast and 25% higher than April 2025.
- Higher benefits spending was a key driver, with welfare outlays rising by about £2.7 billion and more than offsetting an increase in receipts.
- Debt interest costs hit a record April high of £10.3 billion as rising inflation and RPI-linked indexation pushed up payments on gilts.
- Analysts say rising gilt yields — partly driven by the Iran war's energy shock and political uncertainty over Labour leadership — have added an estimated 20–40 basis points to yields and could add billions to interest costs versus Budget assumptions.
- The figures trim fiscal headroom for the OBR's March forecast of borrowing falling to 3.6% of GDP, leave public sector net debt near 94% of GDP, and increase the likelihood of tougher policy choices such as higher taxes on energy firms or further spending adjustments that would affect households and public services.