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UC San Diego Study Finds Blood Marker Predicts Dementia Risk in Women Up to 25 Years Early

Researchers frame the finding as a research tool for now, pending replication beyond older women before any routine screening.

Overview

  • Published March 10 in JAMA Network Open, the analysis links higher baseline plasma p‑tau217 to later mild cognitive impairment and dementia over as long as 25 years.
  • The study tracked 2,766 Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study participants aged 65–79 who were cognitively unimpaired at enrollment, finding risk rose with increasing p‑tau217 levels.
  • Predictive strength differed by subgroup, showing stronger associations in women over 70, APOE ε4 carriers, and those assigned estrogen‑plus‑progestin therapy, with differences also observed between White and Black women.
  • Authors note blood biomarker tests are less invasive than PET imaging or spinal fluid assays but are not recommended for screening people without symptoms, and they call for validation in men and more diverse populations.
  • The results point to near‑term use for early identification in research and for enriching prevention trials rather than immediate widespread clinical screening.