Overview
- UC Davis researchers, writing in npj Viruses, used the AtlasArena machine-learning tool to forecast where New World arenaviruses could expand over the next 20 to 40 years.
- The models project Guanarito reaching parts of Colombia, Suriname border areas and northern Brazil, Machupo moving into Bolivia’s Andean foothills, and Junin shifting within Argentina.
- The study finds risk grows with rising temperatures, changing rainfall and land-use shifts that push farms and cities into rodent habitats.
- The authors warn that communities with little or no prior exposure could face severe illness, with reported fatality rates of about 5% to 30% depending on the virus.
- The coverage ties the forecast to a WHO-confirmed hantavirus outbreak on the cruise ship MV Hondius with six cases and three deaths, highlighting present-day rodent-borne risk.