Overview
- UBS Global Wealth Management, in a research note dated April 6, cut its 2026 S&P 500 year-end target to 7,500 and its mid-year target to 7,000.
- UBS now expects two quarter-point Federal Reserve cuts in September and December after previously penciling in June and September.
- The bank tied the revision to sustained higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict, which raise fuel, shipping, and heating costs and can keep inflation firm.
- Since the Iran conflict began on February 28, the S&P 500 has fallen about 3.9% as investors reacted to energy supply risk and geopolitical tension.
- Despite the lower targets, UBS kept its 2026 earnings forecast at $310 per share and still calls U.S. stocks attractive, implying about 13% upside from the last close.