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2w ago

Uber Executive Predicts Driver’s Licenses and Car Ownership Will Fade in 15–20 Years

He says higher vehicle costs, low private car use and expanding autonomous and shared services make ownership uneconomical and have pushed Uber to link third‑party self‑driving fleets to its app.

Uber president and COO Andrew Macdonald predicts that in two decades, most people will get around by bike, scooter, public transit, or autonomous vehicle.

Overview

  • Andrew Macdonald, Uber’s president, said in a recent podcast appearance that most people will not need cars or driver’s licenses within about 15 to 20 years and framed that view as a forecast rather than a certain outcome.
  • Macdonald backed his view with economics, noting new vehicle prices have risen roughly 30% in six years and privately owned cars sit unused about 98% of the day, which he called an inefficient use of capital.
  • Uber has stepped away from building its own self‑driving fleet and is positioning the company as a platform partner for AV operators, working with firms such as Waymo and Waabi to put autonomous vehicles on its network.
  • The shift is already affecting workers and operations: autonomous vehicles are operating in multiple cities, Uber is paying drivers to help train AI models, and rivals like Lyft are repurposing former drivers into tasks such as cleaning and vehicle upkeep.
  • If Macdonald’s timeline plays out it would require years of regulatory change, city planning and worker retraining, and could reshape commuting, car sales and insurance markets while testing whether Americans will give up long‑standing habits of car ownership.