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UAE Quits OPEC, Testing Gulf Unity and Oil Price Discipline

The move weakens OPEC’s grip on prices by freeing a major producer to raise output.

Overview

  • The UAE has left OPEC and OPEC+, ending nearly six decades of membership and stepping out of the cartel’s quota system.
  • Brent crude has traded above $110 per barrel during the Iran conflict, with the exit adding fresh uncertainty for buyers and producers.
  • Abu Dhabi was pumping about 3.4–3.5 million barrels a day and could add more than 1 million more as it builds toward roughly 5 million barrels a day of capacity.
  • The split underscores a deepening rift with Saudi Arabia over quotas and strategy, which analysts say weakens OPEC’s ability to coordinate supply and steady prices.
  • Importers such as India face higher fuel costs and inflation risk in the near term, though extra UAE barrels later could ease budgets if shipping risks subside.