Overview
- The UAE, which announced its exit earlier this week, leaves OPEC and OPEC+ effective Friday, May 1, in what its energy minister called a sovereign decision to regain control over output.
- With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, banks and analysts say the move has little short-term effect because Gulf exporters cannot raise shipments yet.
- Abu Dhabi has built spare capacity near five million barrels a day, about 12% of OPEC’s total, and ADNOC targets five million bpd of nameplate capacity by 2027.
- Analysts say the departure is a major blow to OPEC’s ability to manage supply and prices and could test the group’s cohesion when exports restart.
- Russia’s Alexander Novak said OPEC+ cooperation will continue and ruled out a price war, citing tight supply and ongoing deficits.