Overview
- Early June the International Energy Agency said the UAE had lifted crude exports to about 4.3 million barrels per day, roughly 85% of pre‑war levels, by routing oil through the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline and using Mandous storage.
- A preliminary U.S.–Iran memorandum signed in mid‑June has allowed many stranded tankers to begin leaving the Gulf and pushed daily transits up from single digits to the low double digits, while overall traffic remains far below pre‑war levels.
- Iran and Oman announced a 'Strait of Hormuz Committee' to plan shipping management and possible fees, and the IRGC has ordered vessels to use Tehran‑approved corridors, creating legal and insurance uncertainty for shipowners.
- The IEA projects a roughly 3.9 million bpd year‑on‑year supply shortfall in 2026 even as flows recover, and markets have pared price premiums as shipments resume while remaining vulnerable to renewed closures.
- Thousands of seafarers were stranded and billions of dollars of cargo delayed, the IMO has set evacuation corridors, and Gulf states are accelerating pipelines and storage investments that could permanently change global energy routes.