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UAE Accelerates Hormuz Bypass as Iran Formalizes Permit Regime

The twin developments signal Gulf states will move exports around the strait and that controlled, permit-based transits will shape oil flows through 2027.

Overview

  • ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said on Wednesday that construction of a second pipeline to Fujairah is nearly 50% complete and is being fast-tracked to start operations in 2027.
  • Iran has set up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and the IRGC says transits now require coordination and permits, with the force reporting 26 vessels passed under its protection in a 24-hour period.
  • Al Jaber warned that full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to return before the first or second quarter of 2027 and that the closure has already cost more than a billion barrels with large weekly shortfalls continuing.
  • The UAE is already using an existing Habshan–Fujairah pipeline with about 1.8 million barrels per day capacity while planning to roughly double Fujairah export capacity to bypass Hormuz.
  • Markets have tightened and costs for fuel, fertilizer and shipping have risen, raising risks to food prices and prompting emergency measures from governments as analysts say a prolonged rerouting of Gulf exports will change global supply dynamics.