Overview
- UC Berkeley IGS polling conducted March 9–14 shows Steve Hilton at 17% and Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16% among likely voters, with Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter at 13% and Tom Steyer at 10%.
- The survey of 5,019 registered voters (about 3,889 likely voters) reports roughly 16% undecided and an overall margin of error near ±2.5 percentage points.
- Democratic leaders, including state party chair Rusty Hicks, have urged lower-polling Democrats to step aside, yet most remain on the June 2 ballot after the filing deadline, keeping the field crowded.
- Poll director Mark DiCamillo describes unprecedented voter disengagement and low candidate familiarity, as affordability and cost of living rank as the top priority for roughly four in ten voters.
- Campaign mechanics loom large, with Steyer’s heavy ad spending boosting his support and ballot-title rules likely benefiting current officeholders such as Bianco; key milestones include candidate certification by March 21, an April 15 viability push, mail ballots in the coming weeks, and the June primary.