Overview
- An independent University of Texas Politics Project poll finds Democrat James Talarico leading John Cornyn 40% to 33% and Ken Paxton 42% to 34%, with about one in five voters still undecided.
- Texas Public Opinion Research, which released results Tuesday, shows Talarico up 44% to 41% on Cornyn and 46% to 41% on Paxton in a survey of 1,018 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 points.
- Pollsters attribute Talarico’s edge to strong support from Black and Latino voters, gains with college-educated Texans, and an advantage with independents, while many independents in the UT poll remain uncommitted.
- Talarico reports a record $27 million raised in the first quarter and more than $40 million since launch from a large small-donor base, and Gov. Greg Abbott is urging Republicans to step up fundraising and turnout efforts.
- Cornyn and Paxton face a May 26 runoff with early voting May 18–22, and Democrats still confront Texas’s long streak without a statewide win since 1994.