Overview
- A University of Southampton paper published Friday in Science Advances identifies a three-stage process that pushed the Southern Ocean into a long spell of low sea ice.
- The study traces stronger westerly winds from 2013 that lifted warm deep water, a 2015 mixing event that melted ice, and since 2018 a warm, salty surface layer that blocks ice from reforming.
- Researchers report a regional split, with East Antarctic losses driven by heat rising from the ocean and West Antarctic declines tied to cloud-trapped warmth in the air during key summers.
- A separate Nature Communications paper published Wednesday finds channels under ice shelves trap warmer water and boost melting by about tenfold locally, threatening the floating buttresses that slow inland glaciers.
- Both teams say current models often miss these small-scale and coupled dynamics, which means sea-level rise could unfold faster than planners expect as record lows like those seen in 2022 and 2023 become harder to reverse.