Overview
- Saturday officials from Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Company, the North Oil Company and Turkey’s BOTAS finalised a one-year tripartite agreement to keep crude flowing through the Kirkuk–Ceyhan line.
- The extension preserves a nominal export capacity of about 750,000 barrels per day while actual flows remain near 200,000 barrels per day because of wartime production losses and operational limits.
- Iraq says the year-long arrangement is a stopgap while governments and companies negotiate a comprehensive deal to raise throughput above one million barrels per day and advance projects such as the planned Basra–Haditha link.
- Progress on new routes and upgrades faces clear obstacles, including financing needs, legal approvals and security risks from militias and regional tensions that could threaten transit and construction.
- Near-term market impact should be limited because the route stays open, but the outcome of financing talks and construction timetables will determine whether Iraq can restore export volumes and reduce reliance on Gulf chokepoints.