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Tufts Analysis Says Massachusetts Rent Cap Could Erase $300 Billion in Property Value

The industry-commissioned report becomes a central factor in the 2026 rent cap campaign by forecasting broad tax-base losses.

Overview

  • The Tufts Center for State Policy Analysis projects up to $300 billion in lost residential value over 10 years if the proposed rent cap takes effect, with a 6%–9% hit to the residential tax base.
  • Modeled local impacts include an estimated 9% drop in Boston property values within three years and 15%–27% declines over a decade in cities such as Chelsea, Everett and Revere.
  • The study, commissioned by the Greater Boston Real Estate Board, extrapolates from St. Paul’s 2021 cap and Cambridge’s experience after the 1994 statewide ban on rent control.
  • Backers of the ballot measure, which limits annual increases to the lower of 5% or CPI and exempts small owner-occupied buildings and the first 10 years of new construction, argue the findings are premature and say tenant protections are needed.
  • Opponents, including Gov. Maura Healey and some mayors, cite the report to warn of budget shortfalls and slower housing production, as a court challenge proceeds, legislative hearings are scheduled, and polling shows majority support for limiting rent hikes.