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TSMC Set to Post Fourth Straight Record Profit on Unrelenting AI Chip Demand

Q2 guidance plus any 2026 capex update will signal management’s view on the durability of AI demand.

Overview

  • TSMC, which reports Thursday, said first‑quarter revenue rose 35% year over year to about $35.7 billion, topping its guidance.
  • Analysts project net profit of roughly T$542.6 billion (about $17.1 billion) for Q1, which would be about 50% higher than a year earlier, according to LSEG SmartEstimate.
  • Orders for 3‑nanometer chips and advanced packaging used in AI accelerators exceed output, pushing lead times beyond 50 weeks for cutting‑edge parts.
  • Wall Street raised targets into the report, including Bank of America to $500 and Aletheia Capital to $600, with several forecasts calling for 7%–9% Q2 sales growth.
  • TSMC is scaling capacity with a planned $165 billion build in Arizona and a shift to 3‑nanometer production in Japan, and investors are watching for any change to 2026 spending plans.