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TSMC Posts Q4 Beat, Record 2025 Sales as AI Boom Drives Orders

Investors now await Jan. 15 guidance on the 2026 outlook, including capital spending.

Overview

  • Fourth‑quarter revenue reached NT$1.046 trillion (≈$33.1 billion), up 20.45% year over year, topping the LSEG SmartEstimate and landing within prior guidance.
  • Full‑year 2025 revenue hit a record NT$3.81 trillion, a 31.6% increase, as high‑performance computing and AI demand offset softer consumer electronics.
  • Goldman Sachs lifted its price target to NT$2,330 and raised 2026–2027 earnings estimates, while JPMorgan moved to NT$2,100 and Mizuho reiterated NT$2,000.
  • Analysts cite tight 3nm/5nm capacity through 2027, gross margins potentially above 60% from 2026–2028, and forecast more than $150 billion in capex over 2026–2028.
  • The U.S. Commerce Department granted TSMC Nanjing an annual export license, easing equipment supply for the China fab without individual vendor approvals.