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TSMC Lifts 2030 Chip Market Outlook to $1.5 Trillion on AI Surge

AI demand is reshaping production toward advanced nodes, leaving a squeeze at older processes.

Overview

  • TSMC, in presentation materials released Thursday at its Taiwan Technology Symposium, raised its 2030 semiconductor market forecast to more than $1.5 trillion and said AI and high‑performance computing could make up 55% of that total.
  • To meet demand, TSMC plans nine new build phases in 2026 and targets rapid growth in leading tech, with 2nm and A16 capacity rising at about a 70% CAGR from 2026 to 2028 and its CoWoS advanced packaging expanding at over 80% CAGR from 2022 to 2027.
  • The company said AI accelerator wafer demand is set to jump 11‑fold from 2022 to 2026, a shift that makes scarce advanced packaging a key limiter for AI system shipments.
  • TSMC detailed overseas progress, noting its first Arizona fab is producing chips, tool move‑in for a second fab is planned for the second half of 2026, a third is under construction, new land has been purchased for future growth, Japan’s first fab is in volume output with a second upgraded to 3nm, and a Germany plant is under construction.
  • On Friday, SMIC said overseas clients are shifting orders to China as foreign foundries prioritize AI chips and high‑bandwidth products, a trend echoed by market data showing tight supply for mature‑node parts such as power‑management chips and rising utilization at older wafer lines.