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Trump's Mid‑2026 'Tariff Dividend' Promise Faces Legal and Fiscal Roadblocks

Independent estimates put the payouts in the hundreds of billions, far above likely tariff receipts.

Overview

  • Trump says he aims to send checks worth thousands of dollars to middle‑income Americans around mid‑2026.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says any payments would require new legislation, and he notes there is no formal proposal while talks hinge on reopening the government.
  • Analyses from the Yale Budget Lab and the Tax Foundation estimate costs of roughly $280 billion to $607 billion, with a Yale scenario near $450 billion under a $100,000 income cap.
  • Republican Senator Ron Johnson argues tariff revenue should reduce deficits rather than fund rebates, saying the government cannot afford new checks.
  • The Supreme Court is weighing the legality of the tariffs, which could force refunds to importers, and economists warn deficit‑funded checks risk adding inflationary pressure and complicating Fed rate decisions.