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Trump’s Iran War Deemed a Strategic Failure

Analysts say the campaign left Iran stronger at home with new leverage over oil flows.

Overview

  • The U.S.–Israeli assault set three goals — topple Iran’s rulers, curb its regional power, and eliminate its nuclear program — yet the theocracy endured and adapted.
  • The strike killed the Supreme Leader, after which his son Mojtaba Khamenei, tied closely to the Revolutionary Guard, took control and signaled a more hardline rule.
  • Airstrikes destroyed parts of Iran’s navy, air force, and missile sites, but Iran attacked neighbors and learned to throttle the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices higher.
  • Trump repeatedly claimed Iran’s nuclear work was “obliterated,” then later admitted it was near a bomb as experts highlighted deeply buried sites like Pickaxe Mountain that bunker-buster bombs cannot reach.
  • Senior U.S. officials had warned against rosy assumptions, with CIA director John Ratcliffe and Secretary Marco Rubio rejecting promises of a popular uprising and the Joint Chiefs chair cautioning that securing the strait would be extraordinarily hard.