Overview
- President Donald Trump told the NATO summit in Ankara that the ceasefire with Iran was "over," which pushed 10-, 2- and 30-year Treasury yields up sharply on Wednesday, July 8.
- The U.S. Treasury’s July 8 auction of 10-year notes cleared at a 4.580% high yield with a 2.59 bid-to-cover and an increased share of indirect (foreign) bidders, and a $22 billion 30-year sale later cleared at about a 5.058% yield with roughly 77.7% taken by indirect buyers.
- After the initial spike, yields steadied through July 9–10 with the 10-year around 4.54% and the 30-year above 5.00% as traders awaited U.S. economic data and tracked continued Middle East developments, including U.S. strikes and technical talks with Iran.
- Prediction markets raised the implied odds of a Fed rate hike by the end of 2026 while a Reuters poll of bond strategists still expects shorter-dated yields to ease over coming months, leaving the policy outlook mixed.
- Higher Treasury yields and firmer oil prices translate into higher borrowing costs for consumers through mortgages and loans, and the clean, well-subscribed auctions show persistent foreign demand that helps the Treasury finance larger interest bills.