Overview
- Axios-reported discussions inside the administration include special-forces raids or seizing Kharg Island, which has so far been avoided in strikes.
- JP Morgan warns a seizure or direct strike would stall exports and likely cut Iran’s oil output roughly in half, with a high risk of retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Oil prices jumped sharply, with Reuters citing intraday highs near $119 a barrel as traders priced in supply risk tied to Kharg and broader regional disruptions.
- Analysts note taking control of the island would probably require ground troops, a step the U.S. appears reluctant to take given operational and political costs.
- Kharg’s infrastructure is extensive, with loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day and storage around 30 million barrels, including roughly 18 million now on site after a mid‑February export surge measured by Kpler.