Overview
- President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday that the United States will likely strike the Pickaxe Mountain site soon, publicly naming the under‑construction complex as a target.
- Independent satellite analysts and think tanks estimate the facility sits roughly 80–100+ metres below the surface, and the IAEA has never been granted access so the site's contents remain unverified.
- Israel has claimed Iran moved enriched uranium and advanced centrifuges into the mountain but has provided no public evidence, and U.S. officials say they cannot confirm those assertions.
- Military assessments note the U.S. GBU‑57 bunker‑buster is rated to penetrate about 60 metres of earth and may not guarantee destruction of the deep halls, while analysts say striking power, ventilation or access systems could neutralize operations without collapsing the mountain.
- Pickaxe Mountain is fortified with reinforced portals, perimeter defenses and IRGC guards, construction began after a 2020 Natanz sabotage event, and the site's public naming increases the risk of miscalculation and broader conflict that could affect regional security, including shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.