Overview
- President Donald Trump said Tuesday that U.S. forces will "be hitting" the Pickaxe Mountain area "pretty soon," publicly identifying the under‑construction complex as a likely near‑term target.
- Analysts using satellite imagery estimate the tunnel complex next to Natanz sits roughly 100 meters or more below the surface and includes multiple hardened entrances that Iran has reinforced since 2020.
- Israeli officials have asserted that centrifuges and possibly enriched uranium were moved into the mountain after 2025 strikes, but Washington has not independently confirmed those transfers and Iran denies any undeclared nuclear work.
- Weapons experts say the U.S. Massive Ordnance Penetrator and similar bunker‑buster munitions are unlikely to guarantee destruction of deeply buried halls, leaving options to target surface support nodes, attempt to 'neutralize' entrances, or pursue inspections.
- Absent IAEA access, the dispute over what is inside Pickaxe Mountain increases the risk of wider escalation, threatens supply and transit routes in the Gulf, and makes diplomatic or inspection measures the clearest path to independent verification.