Overview
- President Donald Trump told reporters at the G7 that he would “rather not” renew the USMCA and would prefer the agreement be terminated, a position that intensified public uncertainty ahead of the review.
- Mexico announced a trilateral virtual meeting for July 1 where each country will present its position, while bilateral U.S.-Mexico talks are already underway and Canada has pressed for a 16-year extension.
- Under the treaty text, unanimous agreement at the six-year review would add 16 years to the pact but failure to agree on July 1 does not end the deal; it instead converts to annual rolling reviews that can continue until the pact expires in 2036.
- Industry groups and analysts warn that prolonged U.S. political rhetoric and sectoral U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos are already straining firms that rely on integrated cross-border supply chains and could reduce investment.
- Mexico and Canada have publicly sought long extensions and officials say talks will continue after July 1, leaving the most likely near-term outcome as prolonged negotiation rather than immediate withdrawal.