Overview
- Kalshi currently prices a 69% chance that President Trump is impeached before January 20, 2029, the market’s highest level since its November 2024 launch.
- Polymarket shows roughly 46–47% for the same outcome, and its contract resolves to “Yes” if the House approves any article of impeachment before January 20, 2029, regardless of a Senate trial or conviction.
- FiveThirtyEight’s tracker registered a new net approval low for Trump at minus 15.3 percentage points this week.
- Narrow Republican control—220–215 in the House and 53–47 in the Senate—remains the central hurdle, with a simple House majority needed for impeachment and two‑thirds required for Senate conviction.
- Regulatory pressure is rising as Senator Chris Murphy proposes a ban on certain government‑action markets and Arizona files criminal charges against Kalshi for allegedly operating an illegal gambling business.