Overview
- President Trump publicly backed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton late in the runoff period, prompting Paxton’s campaign and a supporting super PAC to air pro‑Trump ads and stop some negative ads against Sen. John Cornyn while Cornyn and allied groups continue to outspend Paxton by several times.
- Paxton’s long record of controversies includes an impeachment by the Texas House that alleged he used his office to help donor Nate Paul and reporting of an alleged affair, facts Cornyn’s campaign has highlighted to argue Paxton would be vulnerable in a general election.
- Cornyn holds a large fundraising and advertising advantage—raising roughly $9 million in the first quarter and about $26.5 million overall versus Paxton’s smaller haul—while Democratic nominee James Talarico is polling slightly ahead of both Republicans in recent averages, raising concerns among some GOP operatives that the seat could be at risk.
- Republican leaders have pushed back on White House policy requests, objecting to a roughly $1.776 billion ’anti‑weaponization’ fund and about $1 billion in Secret Service/ballroom security funding, a dispute that helped Senate Majority Leader John Thune pause a planned reconciliation immigration vote.
- What to watch next: whether Trump’s intervention shifts turnout enough to decide the May runoff, how national GOP groups allocate money to defend the seat, and whether the growing intra‑party split will complicate Senate votes and confirmations this summer.