Overview
- President Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton during the second day of early voting, a move that prediction markets and analysts say turned Paxton from a narrow leader into the prohibitive favorite ahead of the May 26 runoff.
- Markets showed Paxton’s chances jumping dramatically after the endorsement, a shift that national and state Republicans say gives Paxton decisive momentum in a low-turnout runoff electorate that tends to favor more conservative candidates.
- Several Senate Republicans publicly rebuked the pick, with Sen. Thom Tillis calling Paxton 'a failure' and warning his ethical and legal baggage would hurt the GOP in Washington.
- Paxton’s controversies include a 2023 Texas Senate impeachment acquittal and a required payment of roughly $6.7 million to former aides who were whistleblowers, issues Cornyn and allies say threaten general-election electability.
- The race has become unusually expensive and closely watched, with roughly $25 million in ad spending and Democratic operatives reassessing how much to invest because Paxton’s nomination could make the Nov. contest more competitive.