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Trump Endorsement Looms Over Texas GOP Runoff as New Poll Puts Democrat Ahead

Prediction markets shifted toward a Cornyn endorsement after reports he is likely to get Trump's nod.

Overview

  • Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff after Cornyn narrowly led the initial vote, 42% to 41%.
  • Trump said he will endorse soon and urged the non‑endorsed candidate to drop out; Paxton later said he would consider exiting only if Senate leaders end the filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act.
  • Cornyn signaled a runoff strategy focused on Paxton’s legal and personal controversies, arguing Paxton would be a liability in November.
  • Ad spending set a national primary record at nearly $131 million, with just under $100 million on the GOP side and more than $71 million backing Cornyn, according to AdImpact.
  • A new PPP survey for Senate Majority PAC shows Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of both Republicans within the margin of error, as Democrats tout stronger early turnout and prediction markets move toward a Cornyn endorsement.