Overview
- President Donald Trump announced he cancelled planned strikes and said negotiations had reached Iran’s senior leadership on Thursday, raising the prospect of a near-term signing.
- Global markets moved sharply into risk assets after the announcement, with major U.S. indexes rising, Asian shares jumping, cryptocurrencies gaining, and oil falling to roughly two-month lows.
- Iran’s government has not confirmed any final deal and state outlets said Tehran had not approved a text, leaving the president’s claim disputed and markets cautious.
- U.S. wholesale inflation data showed May PPI rose 1.1% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year while core PPI was cooler at 4.9% year-on-year, which helped push back bets on the timing of the next Fed rate hike.
- The relief rally is fragile because past false dawns, intermittent military incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, and unclear Iranian confirmation could quickly reverse gains and affect oil-importing economies and central-bank policy.