Overview
- President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday urging the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to keep “exclusive authority” over prediction markets and praising CFTC Chair Mike Selig.
- The CFTC submitted a proposed rule on prediction markets to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on May 26, triggering an interagency review before the rule can be published for public comment.
- Multiple states, including New York, Minnesota and Illinois, have sued or moved to ban certain event contracts as illegal gambling while the CFTC has filed lawsuits and amicus briefs asserting federal preemption in federal appeals courts.
- Scrutiny of the sector has intensified after insider‑trading and manipulation concerns, and the president’s family ties to firms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have helped prompt a House Oversight investigation.
- If finalized the CFTC rule could bring a national model for listing and policing event contracts, affect how platforms operate in the U.S., and increase the odds that the dispute will be resolved by the higher courts as other countries block or ban similar sites.