Overview
- The National Weather Service is actively tracking Marie and expects it to strengthen to hurricane intensity on Thursday before weakening by late Saturday and sitting several hundred miles southwest of San Diego by Sunday.
- Model guidance diverges sharply after Saturday, with some runs bringing moisture north toward Southern California and others keeping the storm well offshore, producing significant forecast uncertainty.
- Tropical swells are forecast to arrive around Saturday–Sunday and could coincide with high tides of about 6.2 to 6.5 feet, which would raise wave heights and increase the chance of high surf, minor coastal flooding, and beach erosion.
- Southern California could see a chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms over the holiday weekend but widespread heavy rain is considered less likely; some models still show pockets of 1 inch or more between Santa Barbara and Los Angeles in certain scenarios.
- Warmer eastern Pacific waters tied to a strong El Niño have boosted this season’s tropical activity and explain why indirect impacts from a distant storm like Marie can matter for California despite the historical rarity of direct hurricane landfalls.