Overview
- The National Hurricane Center declared Tropical Storm Dolly at 11 a.m. Thursday after Invest 96L organized into a system with about 40 mph sustained winds and a westward motion of roughly 24 mph.
- Forecast guidance shows a short window for any strengthening because increasing southwesterly wind shear and pockets of dry Saharan air are expected to disrupt Dolly’s circulation beginning Friday.
- Most models and the NHC project Dolly will degenerate into an open tropical wave before or near the Leeward Islands, though its remnant moisture could deliver heavy showers and localized flash flooding across the Leewards, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola this weekend into early next week.
- Under current guidance Dolly poses a low immediate threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast and mainland East Coast, but uncertainty grows beyond several days and forecasters will watch for any chance of late reorganization farther west.
- The storm’s name was preselected by the World Meteorological Organization years ago and its timing after Dolly Parton’s death is coincidental, a fact that has prompted public attention and some calls to consider name retirement rules in future WMO meetings.