Overview
- The National Hurricane Center named Tropical Storm Dolly on Thursday, Aug. 27, after the system developed a closed circulation about 1,500–1,555 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
- At first advisory Dolly had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph and was moving west at about 23–24 mph with tropical‑storm‑force winds extending roughly 60 miles from the center.
- Forecasters say Dolly has a narrow window to strengthen and will likely degenerate into a tropical wave or post‑tropical disturbance within about 48 hours because increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry air tied to El Niño should disrupt its circulation.
- Even if the cyclone loses its closed center, its moisture is expected to produce heavy rain late Saturday into Monday across the Leeward Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with localized flash flooding possible in mountainous areas.
- Dolly is not an immediate threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast, though a low‑probability chance of regeneration further west near the Bahamas or Bermuda next week keeps longer‑range monitoring warranted.