Overview
- The National Hurricane Center said Friday that the disturbance about 700–900 miles southeast of Hilo has roughly a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.
- Forecasters expect 5 to 10 inches of rain on the Big Island with isolated totals up to 15 inches, warning this could trigger life‑threatening flooding and mudslides in steep terrain and in places damaged by Lala.
- Tropical Depression Two‑C is forecast to become Tropical Storm Moke by Friday or Saturday and is most likely to pass south of the Big Island, though some model runs keep a more northerly track that could bring a direct hit.
- Communities remain vulnerable because Lala left more than 100 homes damaged or destroyed, thousands without power and washed‑out roads, so even a weaker, rain‑focused system could cause outsized harm and hamper ongoing recovery efforts.
- The NHC is also monitoring a low in the northeastern Atlantic with about a 20% seven‑day development chance and several Eastern Pacific disturbances with higher odds, and meteorologists say a strong El Niño is driving warmer Pacific seas and changing basin‑wide storm patterns.