Overview
- The National Hurricane Center upgraded Invest 91L to Tropical Depression Two on Sunday, July 19, 2026, and gave the system about an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
- Tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of the Florida Panhandle and the NHC says the depression could be named Bertha if winds reach 39 mph as soon as Sunday night or Monday.
- An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane was scheduled to fly into the system to measure winds and pressure, and those observations will be key to refining intensity and track forecasts.
- Forecasters say the main near-term threat is heavy, slow-moving rain with commonly 2–4 inches expected and locally up to about 8 inches in spots, raising flash-flood risk along the northern Gulf Coast.
- Forecast uncertainty centers on dry air, modest wind shear, and how long the center stays over warm open water, with model guidance showing a slow north/northwest drift early in the week and a possible westward turn that could bring impacts into Louisiana and western Gulf states.