Overview
- U.S. government bond yields edged higher, with the 10‑year near 4.37% and the 30‑year around 4.93%, as mixed signals on possible U.S.–Iran talks undercut the prior day’s rally.
- The latest rise followed a sharp drop after President Donald Trump said Washington was in talks with Tehran and reports said Iran would let non‑hostile ships pass the Strait of Hormuz, which also knocked oil lower.
- Energy markets slid on those reports, with Brent crude falling below $100 a barrel to about $98 and West Texas Intermediate near $87, easing some inflation concerns that had boosted yields.
- Funding strains added to the swings after weak demand at a $69 billion 2‑year sale and a $70 billion 5‑year auction, the softest since March 2025, which made it costlier for Treasury to issue new debt.
- Analysts highlighted stress markers, noting a 10‑year range of 4.5% to 4.6% as pivotal and warning that a push toward 5% and wider swap spreads would raise borrowing costs for households and firms and could force policy support.