Overview
- Treasury’s quarterly refunding materials, which lay out borrowing plans for bond markets, indicate total issuance will top $2 trillion this fiscal year, or more than $166 billion per month.
- OMB now projects a $2.06 trillion deficit for FY2026, while the CBO’s February baseline is lower at about $1.85 trillion and primary dealers surveyed by Treasury put the median near $1.95 trillion.
- Treasury data show the national debt has surpassed 100% of GDP and sits near $39 trillion, with CBO estimates pointing to roughly $530 billion in interest paid from October through March, or about $88 billion per month.
- GAO warned in April that the federal fiscal path is unsustainable, and a bipartisan House resolution, H.Res.981, seeks to cap the deficit at 3% of GDP by 2030, a level that is roughly half today’s share.
- Analysts say sustained large deficits can raise borrowing costs for households and businesses, and the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee continues to track how the department will finance the growing gap.