Treasury Projects R$300 Billion Revenue Gap by 2030 to Reach Fiscal Targets

Overview

• The Tesouro Nacional’s projections show an escalating extra‑revenue need that begins at about 0.2% of GDP (roughly R$30 billion) and rises to about 1.6% of GDP (near R$300 billion) by 2030 if the current spending regime is left unchanged.
• Under the report’s assumptions the primary balance would move from a 0.4% of GDP deficit this year to a 1.25% surplus in 2030 and public debt would peak at 87.9% of GDP in 2029 and then begin to fall, but those improvements depend on securing the extra revenue.
• The Treasury did not list the specific tax or revenue measures that would close the gap and flagged that, because Congress has resisted measures such as taxing high incomes or cutting tax expenditures, implementation is uncertain.
• As a fallback the report assumes contingenciamentos — spending cuts applied during budget execution — and projects large contingency amounts in later years that still may fall short of the minimum fiscal targets without more revenue.
• Much of the projected drop in spending as a share of GDP reflects a planned fall in precatórios (court‑ordered payments) and assumptions about the GDP deflator rather than announced discretionary cuts, leaving the next government to choose politically difficult revenue or spending actions.