Overview
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that refunds in early 2026 could total $100–$150 billion, or roughly $1,000 to $2,000 per household.
- White House officials echoed the outlook, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt calling 2026 the largest refund season on record and Kevin Hassett estimating many will see $1,600 to $2,000 largely via refunds.
- The One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July includes no federal tax on tips and overtime and other changes, and many workers did not update withholding, setting up larger refunds before take‑home pay rises later.
- Independent analyses, including Piper Sandler’s, suggest average refunds could be about one‑third larger, though gains will vary by eligibility, filing status, and income.
- Nonpartisan experts warn benefits are uneven—Tax Policy Center estimates higher‑income households capture a large share—and the projections are separate from any proposed $2,000 tariff‑funded payments that remain uncertain.