Overview
- An FOI disclosure shows officials expect about £230 million in lost stamp duty and inheritance tax and roughly £150 million to identify and value liable homes before any revenue is raised.
- The policy, called the high‑value council tax surcharge, is set for April 2028 and applies to properties valued at £2 million or more with four flat charges from £2,500 to £7,500 a year.
- The Treasury still projects around £1.4 billion in gross receipts in the first three years and a net £930 million by 2031 after costs and reduced receipts elsewhere.
- The levy is expected to hit about 156,000 homeowners according to the Treasury, while the OBR forecasts around 165,000 in the first year, with a typical bill close to £3,000 a year.
- Estate agents report buyers and sellers are bunching prices below £2 million, and the OBR warns of heavy valuation disputes with about 20% likely to appeal and up to 40% of those appeals succeeding, while the Treasury did no analysis of potential VAT or corporation tax effects.