Overview
- Slow‑moving, backbuilding and training thunderstorms produced very high rain rates overnight into Saturday and led the Weather Prediction Center to issue multiple mesoscale precipitation discussions warning that flash flooding was likely in parts of eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and nearby areas.
- Radar and high‑resolution model guidance showed pockets of 1.5–3 inches per hour and overnight totals of 3–6 inches in some corridors, prompting local flood watches and reports of downed trees and urban flash flooding in metro areas.
- The Storm Prediction Center noted widely scattered Mid‑Atlantic storms with a low chance of a severe watch but a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and marginal hail during the same period.
- Forecasts now show the large‑scale pattern shifting to a strong heat dome that will bring several days of 90°F+ highs and heat‑index values near or above 100°F for much of the central and eastern U.S. next week.
- Gulf moisture is expected to increase daily rain and localized flood risk in South‑Central Texas early in the week while a Saharan dust plume will lower air quality over Gulf and Florida regions and can alter precipitation character when heavy rain occurs.