Overview
- Toyota confirmed in early July that it will shift the Tacoma assembly line from Tijuana to an expanded San Antonio plant, invest $3.6 billion in the U.S., and complete the gradual transfer by 2030 while keeping its Guanajuato operations.
- President Claudia Sheinbaum has convened further meetings with automakers and is negotiating with U.S. authorities to seek tariff relief and measures to avoid plant closures or worker displacement in Mexico.
- Industry executives and analysts say most manufacturers prefer to absorb U.S. tariffs or pause expansions rather than build many new U.S. plants because new factories take years and cost billions to open.
- Several Mexico projects have been paused or reconfigured this year — including Nissan’s CIVAC closure, Tesla’s Gigafactory pause, and BYD delays — raising local job and regional concentration risks; Toyota’s two Mexican plants account for roughly 5,000 direct jobs.
- The 75% regional content rule has been fully in force since January 2026 and the U.S. decision on July 1 to forgo an automatic long extension of the T‑MEC has added annual review leverage, leaving investment plans and supply chains in continued uncertainty.