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Toyota and Subaru Diverge as U.S. EV Industry Retracts

Mass write‑downs have slowed many automakers while near‑term product launches will test whether subsidy‑free demand holds.

Overview

  • The federal $7,500 clean vehicle tax credit expired on Sept. 30, 2025, which pulled demand forward and triggered widespread cancellations, delays and roughly $70 billion in automaker write‑downs.
  • After a steep year‑over‑year decline in first‑half 2026 BEV sales, quarter‑to‑quarter EV deliveries rose about 14.2% in Q2 and Cox Automotive said the market appears to be stabilizing.
  • Toyota is reallocating resources to keep rolling out battery‑electric models while leaning on high hybrid volumes, and it has redesigned the 2027 Highlander as an electric‑only model slated to launch later this year into early 2027.
  • Subaru is keeping a mixed gas, hybrid and EV strategy with four U.S. EVs planned by early next year, although the three‑row Getaway has been confirmed delayed with no new start date.
  • The retreat has left sunk capital in idled battery lines and converted plants, raising risks for resale values, parts and dealer support, and making the sales performance of upcoming EV launches the key near‑term indicator of who gains when demand recovers.