Overview
- Production is halted or near-halted in Qatar, Iraq, and offshore UAE, removing roughly 15% of group output.
- The disruptions represent about 10% of upstream cash flow, reflecting lower cash flow per barrel in the region due to higher taxation.
- Onshore UAE output of around 210,000 barrels per day net continues, and the Satorp refinery is operating normally to supply the Saudi market.
- TotalEnergies estimates that an $8 per barrel increase in Brent from a $60 baseline would offset the expected 2026 cash-flow loss from the affected assets.
- The firm expects limited LNG trading impact from Qatari shutdowns at about 2 million tonnes in 2026 and reiterates that most accretive growth in 2026 is projected outside the Middle East.