Overview
- Lord Ashcroft’s survey, published Saturday, puts the Conservatives, Reform UK and the Greens level on 21%, with Labour on 17%.
- Ashcroft measures support by asking how likely voters are to back each party on a 0–100 scale, a method that helps explain differences with standard “vote tomorrow” polls.
- Election forecasters warn both major parties could shed large numbers of council seats in May as a split vote benefits Reform UK and the Greens.
- In Scotland, a Norstat poll shows Reform UK down to 15% and the party has lost candidates after rows over its Scottish leader, a turn that could change which parties take key constituencies.
- Commentators are urging talks between Conservatives and Reform UK to avoid splitting right-leaning voters in a field where smaller parties are gaining ground.