Overview
- On Thursday Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved North Carolina from Toss-up to Leans Democratic and shifted Alaska and Ohio from Leans Republican to Toss-up, increasing the number of pure toss-ups to four.
- The changes give Democrats a clearer path to a Senate majority but the forecaster warned that Democrats would likely need to win every toss-up to net the four seats required to retake the chamber.
- Analysts cited race-specific factors for the re-ratings, including strong Democratic statewide candidates and a June Fox News poll that showed Sherrod Brown leading Jon Husted in Ohio.
- Key state notes: Roy Cooper leads Mike Whatley in North Carolina; Sherrod Brown is competitive with appointed Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio; Mary Peltola challenges Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska and the contest was complicated when a second GOP filer named Dan Sullivan entered the race ahead of the Aug. 18 primary.
- The map remains fluid through summer primaries and fresh polls, and while these moves narrow the GOP’s cushion, multiple forecasters still judge Republicans as better positioned to hold the Senate unless Democrats sweep the tight races.