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Tony Blair Institute Calls for End to Pension Triple Lock and a New ‘Lifespan Fund’

The think tank argues rising retiree numbers will make the current guarantee too costly.

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Caption: Picture posed by model File photo dated 13/01/25 of an old age pensioner holding bank notes and coins at home in Essex. Some key changes to state pensions are happening from April, affecting the amounts of income that pensioners have as well as the age at which some people may retire. With a new tax year starting on Monday April 6, pensioners are seeing a boost to the amount of income they receive. Issue date: Sunday April 5, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Lucy North/PA Wire Photographer: Lucy North Provider: Lucy North/PA Wire
Caption: 4 mature adults standing and sitting on bars from a bar graph to illustrate bank balance and financial status. Photographer: We Are Provider: Getty Images Source: Digital Vision

Overview

  • The Tony Blair Institute, in a report published Friday, urges scrapping the triple lock after the next election and replacing the state pension with a Lifespan Fund.
  • The triple lock raises the state pension each April by the highest of wage growth, consumer inflation, or 2.5 percent.
  • Under the Lifespan Fund plan, people would build entitlement through work, caring, and study, could draw some support earlier for unemployment, retraining, or caring, and would repay early use through higher National Insurance when back in work.
  • TBI projects pensioner numbers rising from 12.6 million to nearly 19 million by 2070 and warns costs could grow from about 5 percent of GDP to 7.8 percent, while its model aims to hold spending near 5.5 percent and avoid roughly £66 billion a year in extra costs.
  • The Department for Work and Pensions says the triple lock is guaranteed for the rest of this Parliament, as critics including Age UK and former pensions minister Steve Webb warn the proposals are complex and intrusive, even as TBI seeks a cross-party deal via the Pensions Commission to move to an earnings link around 2030.