Overview
- Scientists, led by researchers at the British Antarctic Survey, say the remaining section of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is likely to disintegrate in 2026 based on recent satellite acceleration, seismic events, and expert statements.
- An expedition that drilled through the shelf found warmer water beneath the ice and satellites show new fractures and rising flow speeds, with TEIS flow having roughly tripled between 2020 and January 2026.
- If the Thwaites system ultimately loses its grounded ice, scientists estimate Thwaites alone could add about 65 centimetres (26 inches) of sea-level rise over decades to centuries and could expose larger parts of West Antarctica to future loss.
- Researchers disagree on timing and magnitude of the follow-on effects: some ice-sheet models show limited immediate change after shelf loss while other experts warn removing the buttress could speed grounding-line retreat and long-term ice discharge.
- The near-term outlook tightens pressure on coastal planning and monitoring efforts, with authorities and scientists watching for sudden shelf breakup, faster grounding-line retreat, and more frequent iceberg-quakes as signals of accelerating risk.